Thursday, November 5, 2009

A real problem ... and a solution

The problem with investing, or should I say, investors is that we have JUST too many choices.

Can buy whatever we want, whenever we want, in whichever part of the world we want.

Can buy as little as we want or as much... up to twice our actual buying power! i.e. cash we hold.

I won't even go in to to variety of securities that can be bought - bonds, derivatives [options, futures], unit trusts, IPOs, preference shares, debentures, warrants, ETFs, REITs - and these are just in the financial markets. Other asset classes are ignored entirely.

We are only talking about common stocks bought in the secondary markets through a broker.

Even then, we could be specializing in small-cap, mid-cap, large-cap, dividend-paying, start-ups, services, manufacturing, technology, infrastructure, land development, leisure, luxury, growth, value. Even among the latter two criteria, the degrees of investment attractiveness degrees vary greatly, and are highly subjective [based on the perception and style of the investor]

And then there are strategies - approaches that we are comfortable with / are right for us - long term, short term, going long, going short, diversification, concentration, trading, holding, hedging, straddles, strangles, butterflies...

Before that, comes the analysis - technical, fundamental, qualitative, quantitative, trailing numbers, estimates, adjustments, ratios, greeks, indicators, economics [company, industry, country, global], top-down, bottom-up, competitive moats, brand strength, management effectiveness (entrepreneurial heart), government support, product longevity, ethics, systems, complexness of business / branding / product line, dependence on key executives use of technology, averages, trends, margins, volumes, broad market, inter and intra industry.

It is indeed a problem of plenty. And it is a REAL justified problem. We can get just overwhelmed.

Solution:

Let's SIMPLIFY.

We don't need to kiss ALL the girls to score. Likewise, not all the bull runs and opportunities need to be captured for us to meet our goals - beating the market, adequate returns, retirement funding, etc.

It's the law of sacrificing the too many distractions, to focus on just a few in order to take action with weight and confidence.

This confidence, at least for the individual investor, or small teams comes from in-depth and intimate UNDERSTANDING of the set of companies or an industry. Example: T. Boone Pickens, muti-billionaire, focusses ONLY on commodities - energy - fossil fuels. He built a company that sold it, and now trades it. He and his team are on the top of SUPPLY and DEMAND that ultimately dictate price - now and in the near future. He has clarity on the various FACTORS that can affect this price. Based on that, he can make intelligent, and usually correct, bets using futures contracts. He considers himself a 'fundamentalist', and his bets are 'long' term - 12 months or more.

For the essential investor, we can look at Warren Buffett. His best friend is Bill Gates, and yet he does not buy Microsoft because he does not understand it.

He focusses on aggressive companies in basic industries, which are not dependant on economic or political factors. We can do the same.

Finally, with regard to timing - many of us small investors do not buy because we wait, and wait, and wait. How about if some one told you that you could buy stocks only ONCE a year - on your birthday. You could invest up to 33% of your net worth in any one company. In that case, we would screen up to 26 potential companies (1 for 2 weeks) and study them in depth through the year to craft that 'birthday trade'.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Topics for Future Discourse

Essential Services for Private Investors

Tips, Ideas, Strategies to Win Big in the Stock Market.

Margin of Safety

"Research reduces risk" .. what the smart investor must do to win (not luck, prayers, insider tips, or stratospheric IQ)

Understanding Risk. Pure risk, speculative risk, and reducing them both.

Emotions - their role in our decision making. Making them work in our favour v/s the roller coater. Not being our own enemy, sabotaging our own success.

Fortune favours the brave. Taking the right "risks" at the right time.... without TIMING the market.

The odds. Investing is a game of chance. How to align probabilities in our favour!

Voting machine v/s weighing machine

Profiting from the market's mistakes.

Your advisors - and their true COSTS.

COSTS involved with investing and trading - and their ultimate absolute effect in the long run. Questions to ask - "Can I afford NOT to... ?" and "Does it cost or does it PAY?"

The stars of the investment field ... our heros : warren buffett, philip & ken fisher, peter lynch, benjamin graham.

Our bibles - the intelligent investor, one up on wall street, essays of warren buffett, common stocks - uncommon profits

The meaning of Investing. Investor v/s Speculator / Gambler / Punter.

Critical numbers of our lives, and what to do about them. The math.

The need to "Aware - Compare - Select - Manage" v/s "be convinced and sold".

Featured products in the market for investment, whole life protection, endowment, critical illness protection.

Allocating CPF - why, in what, how much. Plus: latest changes, trends, caveats

Valuation.

Goal Discovery.

Education.

Terms that Matter - Your Financial Vocabulary.

Contrarian - NEVER follow the crowd. Walk to your own beat!

Know what you buy, love what you buy. Money is made when you buy!

When to sell?

Why "buy and hold"? and why NOT!?

Rebalancing ... the MAGIC portfolio!

Dollar Cost Averaging i.e. Regular Savings Plans

The simple elegance of Unit Trusts

Ratios-based investing / Ratios-based Financial Planning

Mistakes people make: the top 10 in financial planning, and how to avoid them.

Trading v/s Investing

Technical Analysis v/s Fundamental Analysis

Quantitative Analysis v/s Qualitative Analysis

What looks good right now ... exciting investment opportunities that deserve your attention

Pitfalls of not investing at all! - What are the options... Are guaranteed returns possible? Advice for the risk-averse investor

Protection ... before any other investment

Defensive Investing v/s Entrepreneurial investing

Issues such as ESTATE planning and taxation